Jon Chandler
Senior Research Lead
Jon Chandler has 20 years of experience in the financial services industry. Prior to joining Cutter Associates in 2014, Jon was a senior business analyst for State Street Global Advisors (SSGA), where he was involved in a number of projects for the front and middle office, including UAT design and execution for an order management system (Fidessa IMS), the implementation of a web-based due diligence platform (FundInsight), and an enterprise solution to support blended benchmarks. Prior to his project roles, Jon was a principal in fixed income trade operations at SSGA. He has extensive experience with post-trade operations and applications, such as OASYS/CTM, PORTIA, MBSExpert, and FailStation. Jon earned a bachelor of arts in history from the University of Florida and an MBA from Northeastern University.
Recent research assignments and publications include the following:
- Alternative Investment Systems
- Cutter Benchmarking: Alternative Investments
- Cutter Benchmarking: Derivatives and Collateral Management
- Cutter Benchmarking: Investment Risk
- Cutter Benchmarking: Performance Measurement and Attribution
- Derivatives and Collateral Management Solutions
- Execution Management Systems
- Managed Data Services
- Order Management Systems
- Outsourcing Solutions
- Performance Measurement and Attribution Systems
- Portfolio Analytics Solutions
- Private Debt
- Risk Management Systems
- The Evolving Front Office Support Model
A few weeks into the NFL season, a familiar ritual has returned for millions of American football fans: tweaking fantasy lineups, sweating survivor pools, and believing this parlay might finally hit. The terminology may be distinctly American, but the behavior is universal — people combining information, judgment, and probability to anticipate what happens next.
Prediction markets bring that same instinct into a broader arena ─ and they’re increasingly emerging as a new data source with real implications for our industry. Prediction markets provide real-time macroeconomic expectations, with continuously updated probabilities for inflation, growth, labor markets, and Federal Reserve decisions.
From Bets to Barometers
Prediction markets let participants forecast, hedge, and trade on future events through event contracts, which have traded on US-regulated markets for more than two decades.
Typically structured as swaps, event contracts derive their value from a specific outcome and can be used to hedge risk or speculate on prices and events. As with any market, participation carries risk, but accurate forecasts can generate payouts.
That broader relevance is where platforms like Kalshi come in ─ turning prediction markets from an abstract market structure into accessible venues where participants buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes.
Forecasting With Prediction Market Platforms
Founded in 2018 by MIT classmates Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi was created to simplify event-based trading and make it more direct. In 2020, Kalshi became the first US Designated Contract Market focused on event contracts, securing CFTC approval as a regulated venue for retail and institutional traders.
Through event contracts, participants take Yes or No positions on specific outcomes. Kalshi says its markets have recently outperformed economists, pundits, and traditional news sources in areas such as inflation and federal funds rate forecasts.
Kalshi’s growth in macro markets illustrates how prediction markets are evolving from event-driven speculation into a source of economic expectations data. In a 2026 Federal Reserve staff paper, Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets, the authors found that Kalshi’s contracts provide high-frequency probability distributions for inflation, employment, GDP growth, and Federal Reserve decisions. These markets can offer a timelier, more detailed view of expected outcomes and uncertainty than periodic surveys and traditional market indicators.
The paper compares Kalshi’s market-implied forecasts with traditional survey and market-based measures, examining their accuracy and responsiveness to economic news and policy signals. It concludes that prediction markets can complement existing forecasting tools in research and policymaking, and that their value for real-time analysis is likely to grow.
"Prediction markets might seem niche, but they can indicate how institutional risk will be expressed in the future. Markets rarely announce their turning points—this is one of them."
Rob Flatley, CEO, TS Imagine
A Forward-Looking Tool
So, for institutional investors, it’s not about making wagers, but about a forward-looking risk signal. Market-implied probabilities can link expectations about monetary policy, economic data, elections, regulation, and geopolitics to portfolio exposures and risk analytics.
Asset managers could use these probabilities in macro research, asset allocation, and scenario analysis, tracking shifts in expectations and their impact across equities, fixed income, currencies, and derivatives.
Pension funds could assess effects on funded status, liability-sensitive portfolios, and strategic allocation. Insurers could apply the signals to capital, solvency, asset-liability, and underwriting stress tests.
While institutional adoption is emerging selectively, prediction markets will soon complement established research and risk models.
TS Imagine, a global provider of cross-asset trading, portfolio, risk management, and prime brokerage technology for financial institutions, is one provider that is keeping an eye on this space, and its CEO Rob Flatley has talked about this market trend.
At Cutter Connect 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona, we’ll discuss the Future of Trading and hear from Rob about prediction markets and how TS Imagine has integrated prediction-market data into its platform.
How Can We Help?
Cutter Associates serves the operational and technology needs of the global asset and wealth management industry. We have helped some of the largest investment management firms around the world achieve business value from every process, realize strategic opportunities, keep pace with the competition, and stay ahead of the technology curve.
To learn more or speak with a member of the Cutter Consulting team, contact us at [email protected].